It would raise about $1.2 billion for the remainder of fiscal 2021 and $3.1 billion for a full year with increases imposed on the top 3% of filers. To pass muster, the amendment requires either 60% support among those voting on the question or more than 50% of those casting a ballot.
 
Some market participants have warned that the state’s general obligation bond ratings — all at the lowest notch above speculative grade, with negative outlooks — will fall to junk if the amendment fails.
 
“It is hard to handicap the probability of Illinois getting downgraded before the end of the year since a lot will depend upon the approval of Illinois’s progressive tax ballot measure” as well as the outcome of the presidential race and the contest for control of the U.S. Senate contests, Vikram Rai, head of Citi’s municipal strategy group, wrote in a Municipal Weekly report in October.
 
“We expect the progressive tax ballot measure to be approved by voters, but if it doesn’t, we believe a downgrade is almost guaranteed,” Citi said. “If the progressive tax ballot measure passes but Republicans retain control of the White House and Senate, the outlook for downgrade is nebulous, essentially a toss-up.”
 
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