Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association
Supply · Service · Stewardship

Are We On The Edge Of An Agricultural Recession?

It’s no secret that farm country is suffering from retaliatory tariffs that are the result of President Donald Trump’s trade negotiating tactics, but could the trade war push U.S. agriculture into a recession? One Wall Street analyst thinks they could.
“From an investor's standpoint, what we're seeing on Wall Street is perhaps a little naivety and a little complacency around the impact of tariffs on the ag economy,” Ann Duignan of JP Morgan told Chip Flory on AgriTalk earlier this week. “I think from Wall Street's perspective, the idea is, ‘oh, it's only a small fraction of the economy, it doesn't really matter,’ but when you get out there and you get your feet on the street in the Midwest, you quickly realize that it does really, really, really matter.”
According to Duignan, farmers in North Dakota and South Dakota are experiencing widening basis that will continue to impact their profitability. She said Farm Credit Services is penciling in huge corn acres next year at a price of $3.20 per bu.
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